Amol’s posterous

First Halloween kids parade and today LIC celebrates the NYC Marathon midpoint, running through at this very moment. Get out to the Pulaski, Vernon or 44th Drive near Court Square to be part of the fun!

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The new Droid buzz is exciting -- a challenger with gusto for the arrogant, invincible iPhone. Or is it?

It's a strategically crucial launch for Android, which has had little impact on the smartphone market so far. It's made mobile operating systems 'cheaper' (free) but not too many people are in that business these days (except Symbian, also free, and MSFT). The real players make gadgets -- Apple, RIMM, Palm.

If -- if -- if this phone is a major hit (e.g., 1 million sold by Q2), it's a win for Google. But not at the expense of Apple. Rather, the likely loser is -- Palm. Those guys have the most to lose as they battle for a distinction. Dev community? Android's bigger. Fast 3G network? Verizon's better. Hardware slickness? Moto's thinner. Touch? Check. Open source/Linux? Check. Apple already brought Palm to its knees, by hoovering up the consumer non-enterprise part of the smartphone market. For the remaining share, why choose Palm over Android?

It's a pattern that Google's rear-view mirror makes clear. Search? Killed Yahoo, not Evil Empire MSFT. Mail? More arrows in Yahoo and AOL's back? Maps? AOL's Mapquest and Yahoo again. Who suffers as Chrome grows? Mozilla. Or Google Docs? Folks like Zoho and OpenOffice.

Not that Google only picks on upstarts or weaklings, it just doesn't really tackle the Microsofts and Ciscos and Apples and AT&Ts and Verizons and Comcasts and Facebooks etc etc. So if the Droid is a winner the loser will be the almost-comeback-kid Palm.

The secret to success? Google takes the hindmost.

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First dance to the Talking Heads.

Was hanging at Wired today and got their latest issue which includes a really great writeup on their road to killing cable. (Unless Comcast buys them first.)

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Content

The Nobels in Economics today recognize some of the social science contributions outside the normal "markets work!" analysis that hold the core doctrines of the dismal science.

There is a fascinating branch led by the hero William Baumol and more recent contributors like Tyler Cowen that studies another surprising realm: arts and culture.

The basic insight is that economics applies here too. Technology and market structure can totally change the products we see. Think Model T or Toyota Corolla or the Prius or Hummer. Tastes alone don't dictate industrial production thought it's an ingredient.

The most striking upshot of analyzing opera and poetry and movies and pop songs this way: when the product is 'cheap to make' the winners in the category rarely get rich and instead call themselves artists (poetry, novels, paintings); when it is expensive to make OR TO DISTRIBUTE then it's a business where people get rich, raise tons of capital, crush hapless new entrants. Think Hollywood (CGI, special effects, locations, huge crews, stars, marketing budgets, national theatrical release). Some of these are fading (digital is cheaper than film) but they are enough for Hollywood to stay rich for now.

Pop songs on the other hand, I would say it's nearly over -- no more stores, no more reliable stars, easy to record/produce, cheap to distribute via mp3/iTunes, etc.

Startups fall into these categories. In some cases they need some meaningful dosh to build up a few of these business assets even while they disrupt others -- Peek is one such startup.

In other cases they are very cheap to make and really fun -- like Foursquare and even Twitter (initially). And they are therefore very hard to get rich from.

Though Tivo and Flip are 'one in a hundred' gadget startups to succeed, Twitter and Flickr are one in a million. Sent from my Peek. See where at http://me.drwn.com

Supercool fall season fun at PS1.

P.S.1 OPENING DAY CELEBRATION
October 25, 12:00-6:00 p.m.
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EXHIBITIONS

1969
October 25-April 5
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=11&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

With works drawn from virtually all collection areas of The
Museum of Modern Art, this exhibition looks back at the
defining year of a period marked by revolution and
sociopolitical tumult.

Robert Bergman: Selected Portraits
October 25-April 5
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=12&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

Using a handheld 35mm camera and precisely integrated
natural lighting, Bergman explores both the poignant
expressions of each individual and the formal structures
of their surroundings.

Between Spaces
October 25-April 5
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=17&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

Playing the role of alchemist, each artist in Between
Spaces recasts familiar materials and objects such
as wood, paint, mirrors, moving blankets, Plexi-glass,
Venetian blinds, and metal grating to make the ordinary
strange.

Opening November 1:
100 Years (version #2, ps1, nov 2009)
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=7&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

Now on view:

Christian Marclay: 2822 Records (PS1), 1987-2009:
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=19&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

Leandro Erlich: Swimming Pool:
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=21&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

On-site 2: Chitra Ganesh:
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=14&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

Learn to Read Art: A History of Printed Matter:
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=15&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

-------------------------------------------------

EVENTS

Editions and Artists' Book Fair Opening Night Preview
Thursday, November 5
6:00-9:00 p.m
http://links.mkt2208.com/ctt?kn=1&m=2734786&r=MTY5NjIzMTA1NDES1&b=2&j=NzgwNTc4MTcS1&mt=1&rt=0

Now in its 12th year, the Editions and Artist's Book Fair
has grown in size and stature to become the premier
showcase for contemporary publishers and dealers
presenting prints, multiples, and artists' books. Proceeds
will support P.S.1 Contemporary Art Center's Annual
Exhibition Fund. The evening's festivities will feature a
special DJ set by Sahra Motalebi and music by AJ Slim.
Please visit our website for ticketing information.

This is a lovely event worth checking out. Part of the hidden arts scene in LIC that you have probably overlooked, and won't be around for long.

Here's a website I think you'll like: NYT: Google Apps: A Long Road Ahead

Many big service providers make all their money from the connection they sell you -- it's what you pay for, where their near-monopoly makes it hard for you to switch, and what is so costly for competitors to replicate. Comcast delivers cable TV to 30ish million homes and that's a huge business. Interestingly, the broadband world has been a whole new line of business for these guys over the same wires. Even though they are not meaningful players online (does it matter that they are a top 5 email host, if they don't run any of the moneymaking or strategically crucial franchises?), they have driven up average revenue per user meaningfully. About half or 2/3 of their users get broadband from them -- an extra $20-40.

So why waste time buying hit-driven, unreliable content creators? Yes, there is a cost to the NBC content that Comcast delivers and one imagines that 'vertically integrating' would save Comcast some bucks. Like oil-wells-to-gas-stations Standard Oil.

But you don't see Apple buying EMI. Hit content is like oil in some ways -- you never know where you'll find it and a gusher is worth *something*. But the money's all in the delivery mechanism, the part you can control. iTunes not EMI, cable not the shows.

What Comcast should be buying is Netflix. It's pretty clear that TVs are about to start getting smarter, incorporating a lot of what set-top-boxes used to do. And as the premiere 'stream movies' brand with 10 million or so paying customers, putting Netflix in your TV will help you sell more TVs. So there will be loads of TVs in non-Comcast households ready to go.

With their paid-programming delivery service getting hooked into so many TVs all over the place, irrespective of the broadband wires/wireless under the hood, those Netflix guys are going to soon have the kind of franchise that you really want if you're Comcast. And whoever the media champs are will have to go through them to find a big audience.

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